Defying the Odds: When the World Says You Can’t, Elul Says You Can

Televised sports these days have a new kind of scoreboard, one that doesn’t just tell you the score, but tells you the chances of success. It’s a relatively new feature called “in-game win probability,” which is essentially a percentage that tells you the likelihood either team will win, or lose, at any given moment in the game. It’s a number that changes constantly – for example, in a basketball game the stat is based on the score, the time left, who has the ball, and a dozen other factors.

That number adds a fascinating layer to the drama of sports. Watch it long enough, and your emotions rise and fall with each change. And when it dips under 5%, it’s tempting to think, “Game over.” The math seems clear.

And yet, every sports fan also knows that it’s never really over until the final buzzer. This is a lesson that I was reminded of this June from an unlikely source: the Indiana Pacers, an NBA basketball team.

In four different games in this year’s basketball playoffs, the Pacers in-game win probability fell under 4%. That means that on four separate occasions, their chances of winning was incredibly low.

In one game the number reached 1.2%, in another 2.1%, in the Finals opener 3.6%, and against New York it was under 0.3%. Statistically, the odds of winning all four of those games was 0.0000006716 (6 zeroes!). That's a 1 in 1.5 million chance, something that would be astronomically unlikely.

And yet — they won. Every single game.

That is the greatest lesson as we enter the month of Elul.

How often do we look at ourselves and think, “I’ve tried to change so many times. Nothing works. I guess this is just who I am”? Whether it’s temper, jealousy, procrastination, or starting (and failing) another diet, we convince ourselves that past failures define us.

But they don’t. Even when the odds feel impossible, never count yourself out. If a basketball team can defy one-in-a-million odds, how much more so can we—armed with a pure soul, prayer, and Hashem’s help—rewrite our own story?

Elul is that opportunity. When you try to change a habit, remember that the live model in your head, those odds on your personal “scoreboard,” are just numbers, they aren’t pre-determined outcomes, They whisper, “2% chance you’ll really fix your temper… 3% chance you’ll rebuild your davening… 1% chance you’ll become more present at home.”

Ignore them. They’re not reality. Don’t believe that model and don’t ever count yourself out. You are not defined by your mistakes of shortcomings. They are not permanent or immutable. A Jew never says, “This is who I am and I can’t change.”

The scoreboard isn’t final when there’s still time left on the clock.

And just like the Pacers didn’t win with a single miracle shot, we don’t change overnight. They won by stacking little plays—a stop, a rebound, an extra pass. Elul works the same way: real change is built on small, deliberate steps. Pause before speaking. Put the phone down for Shema. Say one bracha with real kavanah.

If a team can defy a one-in-millions scenario by stacking little plays, a Jew can defy last year’s version of himself by stacking little mitzvos. Stack enough of those choices, and the “win probability” flips. Because when it comes to teshuva, the odds don’t decide the outcome. We do.

This Elul, pick one move — one small, specific change — and own it. One tefillah you won’t miss. One word of encouragement you’ll give. One time you’ll pause before reacting. Because when you choose blessing in that moment, you tilt the scales — not just for yourself, but for all of us. And if each of us makes just one real choice of blessing, then our “win probability” quickly becomes unstoppable.